Volatilitas, integrasi, dan transmisi harga telur ayam ras di wilayah Sumatera
Volatility, integration, and transmission of purebred chicken egg prices in the Sumatra region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21082/akp.v24n1.2026.73-91Keywords:
egg market integration, egg price dynamics, price transmission, regional economyAbstract
Purebred chicken eggs are an important source of protein for household consumption, but their prices frequently fluctuate, potentially disrupting market stability. The novelty of this study lies in providing an integrated analysis of price volatility, market integration, price transmission, and the roles of price makers and price takers in the interprovincial chicken egg market across Sumatra. The study aims to analyze price volatility, market integration, price transmission, and the role of each province in price formation. The analysis employed the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to measure price volatility, the Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Model (ECM) to examine market integration, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality Test to identify the direction of price transmission. The study used monthly chicken egg price data from ten provinces in Sumatra covering the 2020–2024 period, obtained from the Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS). The results indicate that price volatility is moderate, markets are integrated in the long run but not in the short run, and provinces play different roles in price formation. Aceh, Bengkulu, South Sumatra, and Lampung function as both price makers and price takers, whereas West Sumatra, Jambi, and Bangka Belitung tend to operate independently. Overall, the chicken egg market in Sumatra exhibits long-run market integration with an uneven interprovincial price formation structure. These findings provide an empirical basis for formulating price stabilization policies and strengthening regional food distribution systems.
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