Sustainable Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) Cultivation Strategy Through Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) Based on Productive Land Projection 2026-2036

Abstract

Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) is a leading plantation commodity in Indonesia, playing a vital role in the national economy by generating employment, contributing to foreign exchange earnings, and supplying key raw materials for the food, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical industries. However, the national cocoa sector is increasingly challenged by shrinking cultivation areas, climate change, and pest and disease outbreaks. This study has two main objectives. First, to analyze the projected area of productive cocoa farmland from 2026 to 2036 and to evaluate the implementation of Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) in enhancing cultivation productivity. Second, to examine the role of farmers’ socio-economic factors and spatial approaches in supporting adaptive and sustainable cocoa farming strategies. A quantitative approach was employed using time series forecasting models (SARIMA and ARIMA) to project the potential of productive cocoa land from 2026 to 2036, based on secondary data from 2000 to 2023. The results indicate that despite a projected decline in land area, cocoa production is expected to increase, suggesting improvements  in productivity driven by more adaptive agricultural practices. Moreover, farmers’ socioeconomic factors—such as knowledge level, perceived economic and health benefits, and involvement in farmer groups—significantly influence the adoption of innovation. These findings underscore the necessity of context-specific extension programs and institutional strengthening to support GAP adoption. A spatial and socioeconomic data-driven strategy is crucial for formulating a competitive, sustainable, and climate-resilient cocoa production system in the years ahead.